Emerging Power Struggle and Transnational Threats in the Indian Ocean 
 
IKB Forum       09-03-10

Today security of sea-lanes of communication in Indian Ocean is being threatened by many national and transnational factors. Power struggle among regional countries to dominate the critical sea- lanes of communication is threatening the free flow of ship movements to the region. With a new great power game unfolding in the Indian Ocean between Japan and China, China and India, and China and USA to increase their respective spheres of influence, regional countries are looking for new maritime alliances to protect their national interest in the region.

However the power struggle among the regional countries is not the only factors that are threatening peace and security in the Indian Ocean. Increasing incidents of Sea piracy, maritime terrorism, the rise of narco–terrorism, the terror- crime nexus, gunrunning, maritime pollution and oil related environmental disasters and sea mining started posing serious threats to security of sea-lanes in the region.

Power Struggle among the Regional Countries

Lately there have emerged many challenges to the security of sea-lanes. The unstable political relationships among regional countries, especially among US, Japan, China and India constitute a major threat to regional sea-lanes of communication¡¯s security. Without an amicable and cooperative political atmosphere among regional countries, one cannot expect to have a secure and stable maritime transportation.

Suspicion and mistrust between China and Japan recently has been growing alarmingly. It is having a serious effect on regional peace and development as well as on regional sea-lanes of communication security. China strongly opposes the enlargement of Japan¡¯s military role in the Asia Pacific. In the recently adopted new Guidelines, Japan has taken upon itself an extended role in the security of surrounding areas. The Guidelines were approved in the Japanese parliament in May 1999, and have become enacted. The extended role of Japanese security forces has made many neighboring countries nervous about Japan¡¯s real intentions. China, Korea and other East Asian countries have taken very serious note of this change in Japanese security policy and are gravely concerned.

Japan¡¯s self-imposed policy since 1981 in safeguarding the sea-lanes of communications up to 1,000 miles from its territory for its oil lifeline is also causing concern in the region. Under this policy Japan conducts regular maritime surveillance of its neighboring seas and its sea-lanes by utilizing maritime patrol aircraft and naval vessels. This extended role of Japanese navy is a potential source of conflict in the region if all regional countries in the region were to extend their jurisdiction up to 1,000 miles from their coasts.

India and China, the two dominant players in the region, are also engaged in fierce rivalry to extend their area of influence in the region. Both are trying to bring smaller states like Maldives and Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean region under their respective sphere of influence. Under the aegis of India¡¯s Look- East policy initiated in the early 1990, India has been cultivating closer relations with countries in the Bay of Bengal, South East Asia and South China sea. China is endeavoring to extend its military and economic co-operation with Maldives, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh. China's ambition to form a naval base at Marao in the Maldives, its recent entry into oil exploration business in Sri Lanka, development of port and bunker facilities at Hambantota, strengthening military co-operation and boosting bilateral trade with Colombo, are causing major concerns in the regional countries.

The United State is also moving to assert its control over the critical sea-lanes in the region. It already has major naval presence in the region. China harbors serious suspicions over USA intentions in the region. It strongly fears of a U.S. blockade of the Malacca Strait in the event of a crisis over Taiwan. The United States at present has vast control over the major so-called ¡°choke points¡± on the world¡¯s sea-lanes. Almost all of China¡¯s energy imports are obtained through sea and China is concerned that the United States could embargo its oil supply. Beijing is also concerned over its gradually weakening position in the Indian Ocean as New Delhi develops new generations of weapons systems with U.S. support.

According to Chinese perceptions the China¡¯s energy routes are most vulnerable not on the high seas, but at transit points through several narrow straits. They include Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the 9-Degree Channel in the Northern Indian Ocean, Malacca and Luzon straits in Southeast Asia, and the Taiwan Strait, a possible battleground between China and the United States.

China fully realizes that currently it is dependent upon the United States and other major powers on ensuring the safe flow of its energy imports. To reduce this dependence on USA, it is developing new original high tech weapons. This has caused major concern in Asian countries that believe that China¡¯s development of new high tech naval capabilities would allow it to dominate the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Experts have also pointed to the so-called Chinese ¡°string of pearls¡± strategy in which a network of bases along sea-lanes is being set up as an example of China¡¯s strategy to increase its influence in the region.

China is also suspicious of growing USA-Indian cooperation. China suspects that the United States would use India, with its powerful navy, as a potential balancing force against it in the region. The two democratic allies are already carrying out joint anti-terror patrols along the Malacca Strait, straddling Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. The strategic consequences of growing USA-India naval cooperation are causing concern in China. Many Chinese analysts feel, as per US regional strategy in Asia, India would be the best bet to restrict a future strong China.¡±

Transnational Threats

The growing power struggle among the regional countries is not the only concern for security of sea-lanes. Many factors of transnational nature have also begun to pose a serious threat to sea-lanes of communication security. Piracy has emerged as the number one threat to security of sea –lanes in the region. The Malacca Straits and South China Sea have become the main areas of pirate¡¯s activity. Though there are said to be many other reasons, this growing phenomena in the region, is attributed to economic conditions and the mindset of the coastal people in the hundreds of minor islands that face the Malacca Straits and South China Sea. Recently piracy has also started spreading to other regions of Indian Ocean. The Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea have emerged as two new areas of sea piracy. Recently piracy also seems to be getting more dangerous and lethal in the region. Earlier piracy often involved mere stealing of valuables from ships with a negligible amount of associated violence. However piracy has become more violent as it often now involves the death of crew -members and destruction of ships.

Maritime terrorism has also begun putting new pressure on the security of sea -lanes of communications. After the 9-11 terrorist incident in the USA, the international community has started taking seriously the threat posed by the terrorism in sea. With a dramatic increase in large and small container transport by sea, the threat of maritime terrorism has grown manifold as these sealed containers often pass through ports without undergoing thorough checking and are capable of containing anything from human terrorist cargo to arms and ammunition.

Drug trafficking is also another serious threat to safety and security of the sea-lanes. Drug trafficking and maritime terrorism are often interlinked with each other. Money generated by drug trafficking is often used to fuel terrorist activities and insurgencies around the region. Terrorist groups often work hand-in-hand with drug cartels. In the Indian Ocean region, Iran and Pakistan form a major portion of the drug-infested ¡°Golden Crescent,¡± while Myanmar (Burma) and Thailand constitute the majority of the ¡°Golden Triangle,¡± notorious for its illegal drug production.

The gunrunning is another problem. Gunrunning is deeply intermingled with drug trafficking in the region. It is extremely difficult to control one without controlling the other. Gunrunning by sea is by far the least risky means for transferring arms and ammunition around the world for its perpetuators, while drug trafficking is the most lucrative. Insurgent movements around the world, depend extensively on drug money to fuel their movement and equip their forces.

Apart from these major transnational threats other problems emerging as serious threat to the security of sea-lanes in the region are oil-related disasters at sea,sea pollution and sea mining. Oil related disasters create havoc with the ecology in the maritime environment and have the potential to affect maritime security. Sea mining by regional countries is also a serious area of concern in the region. Many regional countries use it to deter the entry of illegal ships to their shores. Sea mining is a serious threat to disrupt the sea traffic since it is not even necessary to carry out actual mining operations. The mere threat or a well-calculated disinformation campaign about the laying of a minefield can deter any merchant ship from entering an ¡°affected¡± channel or strait.The increasing maritime security issues in the region, mitigated by the economic and political interdependence has highlighted the need for cooperation in management and protection of these sea-lanes. Transnational issues such as piracy, accidents and petroleum spills as well as national issues such as conflict due to residues of territorial have made the countries of the region think seriously about the security of Indian Ocean. Many of these countries have started feeling the need for a concrete security scheme, which can come up with security arrangements and prevent future conflicts in the region.

Already two of the largest in Asia, the economies of India and Korea are still growing at very high rate. However most of the trade and other economic activities of both countries are done through troubled sea-lanes of the Indian Ocean. Thus both country¡¯s economic and industrial stability depends, largely, on the smooth flow of ship movement in the Indian Ocean. The future of cooperation between India and Korea who are presently enjoying good economic relations also depends largely on the security and free access to sea-lanes in the Indian Ocean. The sea-lanes of communications have thus become very crucial to the rapidly growing prosperity of India and Korea. Currently various kinds of threats are posing serious challenges to free movement of ships in the region. Countering these threats and challenges requires consistent cooperation between the states affected and the associated maritime agencies. Indo-Korean cooperation can go a long way in securing the sea-lanes of communication in the Indian Ocean

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