G 20 and Korea
 
Don Kirk       10-07-19

Remember the 1988 Seoul Olympics? They put South Korea on the map as a global force that had risen from the ashes the Korean War, from a decade of near-poverty after the war and, 35 years after the signing of the armistice in 1953, was ready to step into the international spotlight for all the world to marvel over its accomplishments.
Now Korea is gearing up for another display that¡¯s sure for a brief period in November to dramatize Korea¡¯s importance in quite a different context. The occasion is the G20 summit on Nov. 11 and 12 in Seoul, a gathering of leaders from the world¡¯s 20 most important economic powers. The mission of the G20 is to work out a consensus on agreements for solving the world¡¯s economic ills at a time of widespread uncertainty, and the fact that President Lee Myung-bak is hosting the meeting symbolizes recognition of Korea as one of the world¡¯s leading centers of business and industry.
¡°The G20 will be an important step for Korea,¡± said Victor Cha, a professor at Georgetown University who directed Asia policy on the White House staff during the presidency of George W. Bush. ¡°Like the 1988 Seoul Olympics,¡± said Cha, talking at a forum here on Korean economic development, ¡°it will be a step to show Korea punches considerably above its weight in the international arena.¡± Or, as Scott Snyder, long-time Asia Foundation expert, put it in the same forum, ¡°the challenge for the Korean government is to market it as more than an event¡± but rather ¡°as a platform for Korea to show its development.¡±
The G20 summit, however, raises security concerns that go far beyond that of demonstrators protesting the presence of the leaders of 20 nations all converging on Seoul to sort out global economic issues. Cha warned of another terrorist attack by North Korea. ¡°Anything that¡¯s a success for South Korea is a threat to North Korea,¡± said Cha at the forum. ¡°That¡¯s worrisome.¡± As a precedent, he cited the explosion of a Korean Air plane over the Indian Ocean in November 1987 in which 115 people died less than one year before the Seoul 1988 Olympics. It¡¯s suspected, said Cha, that North Korea deliberately timed the explosion, set by a pair of agents who had planted a bomb in the plane before getting off at a stopover, for the run-up to the Olympics.
If North Korean terrorism did nothing to stop the South from staging the Seoul Olympics, however, it¡¯s certainly not going to deter the South from the G20. No one is working harder to make the summit a success on the world stage than SaKong Il, a former finance minister who for years has been running a prestigious economic think tank in Seoul and now chairs the presidential committee for the summit. ¡°We¡¯ve got 120 people working day and night,¡± said SaKong, talking in Washington at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. ¡°Sometimes we¡¯re only getting two or three hours sleep a night.¡±
SaKong himself, besides directing the committee, strives to publicize the summit at venues ranging from the United Nations in New York to think tanks in Seoul and elsewhere, convincing audiences that the G20 is actually more important than sessions of the G8, the eight leading economic powers. ¡°We live in a deeply integrated world,¡± says SaKong.¡°The problems in our part of the world become the problems for all.¡±
SaKong was talking after attending the G20 summit in Toronto in June at which leaders spoke in very general terms about resolving an economic crisis that has a way of recurring just when it appeared to have subsided. ¡°We all expected the Toronto summit would focus on a basket of policy options,¡± said SaKong. ¡°Many expected exit strategies to steal the limelight.¡± In fact, ¡°fiscal consolidation stole the limelight,¡± he said. ¡°Leaders promised plans for fiscal sustainability, for dealing with the fiscal crisis in Europe,¡± turning to ¡°the monetary side to support sustainable recovery.¡± As far as SaKong was concerned, perhaps the most substantive aspect of the final communiqué was the emphasis on the need to follow up at the Seoul summit. ¡°I¡¯ve never seen a communiqué which mentions an upcoming summit so many times,¡± he observed.
If the results of the G20 summit in Toronto seemed deliberately vague, the leaders when they meet in Seoul should have the chance to get down to specifics. In that spirit ¡°the Seoul summit can become a landmark in institutionalizing the G20 summit as a new landmark for international cooperation,¡± said SaKong. ¡°We are closely cooperating with G20 member countries to make the Seoul summit another success.¡±
If G20 is to be a success, however, the leaders at the summit will somehow have to go beyond the level of clichés inherent in French President Nicolas Sarkozy¡¯s emphasis on ¡°unity and coherence¡± SaKong hopes that ¡°will provide the momentum for the G20.¡± At the same time, he sees Korea as exercising its own distinctive influence by ¡°paying close attention to the voices of the developing world.¡± Thus, he said, ¡°We are very actively and seriously engaged in outreach activities¡± that will demonstrate conclusively that the G20 ¡°is a better forum¡± than the G8. In the end, he said, the Seoul summit will prove that the G20 is ¡°the premier forum for economic and financial cooperation.¡± Disappointed with lack of real results from the G20 in Toronto, Sakong said flatly, ¡°We have insisted that leaders will recommit so that we can get results from the Seoul summit¡± particularly in the areas of trade quotas and barriers.
At the same time, SaKong envisions the Seoul G20 as forging ahead in new directions. ¡°In addition to the follow-up agenda,¡± he said, ¡°we would like to add new items in economic development and a global financial safety net.¡± Rather than come up with still more generalities, SaKong offered assurances that ¡°we will take a focused and targeted approach on infrastructural development and education.¡± Emerging and developing countries, he said, ¡°will have strong incentives to generate sources as insurance for growth.¡± The new agenda for the summit, he said, ¡°Will help not only the developing world but also the G20 framework.¡±
Nonetheless, C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute, moderating SaKong¡¯s appearance, raised an essential point. ¡°So far the G20 summit has been largely a fire-fighting mechanism,¡± he said. ¡°For the G20 to be sustained, it will have to segue from a firefighting mechanism to a systems manager.¡± The question was whether the G20, meeting in Seoul, could accomplish that goal. ¡°We should concentrate more on post-crisis economic management,¡± SaKong responded. ¡°At least we should lay the groundwork.¡± After all, he argued, ¡°the success of the G20 is important not only for Koreans but for the global economy.¡± At the same time, he added, ¡°I just hope by November the situation is better¡± so participants in the summit would not have to worry about finding solutions to immediate emergencies in the global economy.
SaKong made an implicit connection between the G20 and the Korea-U.S free trade agreement. The connection between the two seemed logical considering that U.S. President Barack Obama, at the summit in Toronto, had promised in a meeting with President Lee to try to win approval of the KORUS FTA by the U.S. Congress. ¡°I was very pleasantly surprised,¡± said SaKong. ¡°It is really a win-win. Both sides should work together economically.¡± SaKong noted that China has become far and away South Korea¡¯s biggest trading partner, accounting for 23 percent of all the South¡¯s foreign trade as opposed to 11 percent with the U.S. and 6 percent with Japan. Ratification of the FTA, he said, would be ¡°not just an economic thing¡± but a move with ¡°important geopolitical implications¡± that ¡°will work out for the benefit of both countries.¡± After three years of foot-dragging since negotiators worked out the terms, however, SaKong saw time as of the essence. ¡°We better hurry,¡± he said.
Approval of the KORUS FTA would inevitably have a positive impact on the G20 summit – and help to ¡°contribute to making G20 a real premier forum for international cooperation.¡± G20, said SaKong, would vastly broaden Korea¡¯s horizons and outlook. While the Seoul summit ¡°has previously been described as fire-fighting,¡± he said, ¡°we have national and regional and global interests.¡± In the end, ¡°no nation can prosper without global interests.¡± With such a leadership role, said SaKong, ¡°you don¡¯t want to champion a region.¡± The question to be asked, he went on, is, ¡°Is it a global interest which happens to help the region?¡±
One special advantage, said Bergsten, is that ¡°Korea still has the most brilliant development record of any country.¡± Yet another advantage, he added, is Korea¡¯s place among the G20 – ¡°in the middle range in terms of income, nestled between high and lower income economies.¡±
Korea¡¯s place in the middle among the G20 countries leads to analysis of Korea¡¯s proper role as a middle-range power generally. Scott Snyder, who spent several years as director of the Asia Foundation in Seoul before transferring to Washington, sees President Lee as envisioning ¡°the idea of a global Korea¡± whose ¡°rise is a product of the current system.¡± Now, he asked, ¡°How will Korea position itself and manage differences with the U.S. in the context of China¡¯s rise?¡± Park Myung Lim, a professor at Yonsei, viewed ¡°the rise of Korea as a middle power¡± as ¡°the offspring of confrontation and the passion of the Korean people¡± in the struggle for democracy.
¡°The whole notion of South Korea¡¯s rise as a middle power leads to the question of what is a middle power,¡± said John Park of the U.S. Institute of Peace. ¡°South Korea is different from other middle powers as it faces a security threat.¡± In the aftermath of the sinking of the South Korean navy vessel the Cheonan in March, however, he saw Korea ¡°moving away from the idea of a middle power and more as an ally of the U.S.¡±
Katy Oh of the Brookings Institution moderated the panel on the international environment surrounding the Korean model of development at which Cha, Snyder, John Park and Park Myung Lim all spoke. Any visitor to Seoul, she noted, would sense the dynamism of Korean society and the emergence of South Korea as a global economic force. Asked about the significance of the G20 summit, she had no doubts about its meaning for Korea regardless of Korea¡¯s role as a middle power or an American ally -- or both. She urged her audience to read a series running in a newspaper in Seoul entitled, ¡°From Rags to Riches¡± in which experts have been extolling Korea¡¯s achievements. ¡°All the global observers will be mesmerized,¡± she said. ¡°Korea is telling both China and North Korea, ¡®Look what we have achieved.¡¯¡±




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